Here is a great article that appeared in yesterday's paper.  Phoenix Real Estate may be recovering......

Worst may be over for housing in the Valley

Signs of recovery starting to surface on the outskirts

 Catherine Reagor - Oct. 10, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Valley homeowners have watched their property values plummet with a sense of shock and horror during the past year. But the gut-wrenching drop could be over as early signs of the market finally hitting bottom have appeared in some areas.

On Sunday, The Arizona Republic's latest Valley Home Values report will show prices dropped in every Phoenix-area ZIP code during the first eight months of 2009. A closer look at the numbers, though, reveals newer communities on the outer edges of metropolitan Phoenix are seeing smaller declines in home prices this year compared with 2008.

Those areas, including neighborhoods in Buckeye, Gilbert, Queen Creek and Surprise, were the first to experience the housing market's collapse. Those former housing hot spots could be the first to recover.

Older areas closer to downtown Phoenix, including many central Phoenix neighborhoods, suffered the biggest home-price hits this year.

Most of these areas were the last parts of the Valley to see housing values tank, but they could bounce back more quickly because many of the neighborhoods are popular with people who want to live closer in.

 

Positive signs

 

And there are signs the Valley's housing market has begun to inch toward a recovery.

Foreclosures have dropped during the past two months. Home sales are well ahead of last year's pace. Home prices are slowly ticking up.

"Valley home prices hit bottom in April," said Mike Orr, who publishes the "Cromford Report," a daily analysis of metropolitan Phoenix's home-sales data. "Foreclosures have peaked. The market is struggling to establish a clear direction."

Orr said the Valley's affordable-housing markets, especially those farther out, are seeing gains in home prices now.

But prices continue to fall in the most expensive neighborhoods.

The latest figures on foreclosure rates, home sales and home prices may be early indicators the housing market is starting to come back.

 

Foreclosures

 

Valley foreclosures fell 29 percent in September from the record 5,300 reached in July. Pre-foreclosures were also down last month, but there were still 7,857 homes that lenders started to foreclose on.

This is the key gauge of the health of metro Phoenix's housing market.

As long as lenders continue to foreclose on Valley homes and resell them for half of what they sold for a few years ago, home prices will fall.

Check out the foreclosure-resale chart in Sunday's Valley Home Values package to see how many foreclosure homes sold in your neighborhood this year.

 

Home sales

 

In June, Valley home sales buoyed by foreclosure-home resales rivaled monthly records set during the boom years. Although sales have slowed a little in the past few months, 85,000 homes have sold across metro Phoenix so far this year. That's 50 percent ahead of last year's pace.

There's a positive indicator in the slight drop in recent home sales. Fewer of the sales are foreclosure homes.

Earlier this year, foreclosures homes accounted for almost 70 percent of all Valley home sales. Slightly less than half of the home sales in September were foreclosure homes.

 

Home prices

 

The median price of a Valley home has ticked up to $135,000 after falling to a 10-year low of about $120,000 six months ago.

The current median is half of what the record median high price for the market was in 2006, but it is heading in the right direction. Valley home prices started falling in mid-2007 but didn't plummet until late in the year when lenders placed thousands of foreclosure homes on the market all at once and began accepting low-ball offers.

The supply of foreclosure homes for sale in the Valley has also fallen, another good sign for the market. There currently are about 4,500 foreclosure homes listed for sale, compared with more than 20,000 in February.

The federal government's plan to push more lenders to restructure the mortgages of borrowers facing foreclosure could help ensure foreclosures don't soar again.

A full recovery isn't imminent, but the latest signs suggest the Valley's housing market is beginning to pull out of its nose dive.

Here are some market numbers for the Phoenix MLS for September:

7947 properties CLOSED - down approx 10 from last month
7264 SOLD under FHA limits ($346,250)
396 SOLD between $350k – $500k
308 SOLD above $500k
Approx 2908 SOLD under $100k - down about 1000 from last month

412 Queen Creek, 395 Gilbert, 395 Chandler, 453 Glendale, 653 Mesa, Scottsdale 537, Fountain Hills 62, Cave Creek 51, PV 27, Phoenix 2,085 SOLD
 
3815 REO Closed
1511 Short Sales Closed

Recently,  Realtor.com asked “Do you know what affects a homeowner’s credit rating?” 

The most commonly used credit scoring method is the FICO score.  There are 5 factors that are used to determine your FICO score, as you can see in the chart below.  The percentages reflect the relative importance of that factor; in other words, payment history is the most important factor, but is only slightly more important than amounts owed.

Source: MyFICO.com

The whole point of a credit score is to offer lenders a quick and easy way to estimate the risk associated with lending money to you.  If lending money to you is riskier, because you’re more likely than someone else to default, the lender will charge you a higher interest rate to compensate for that higher risk (or will simply not lend to you at all).  So all of the factors that are used to determine your credit score are factors because they’re statistically relevant ways to estimate the risk you represent to a potential lender.

Payment history

The payment history factor is fairly simple to understand: it takes into account how you’ve paid your bills.  After all, your history of debt repayment is an excellent indication of whether or not you’ll pay your debts on time in the future.  It includes delinquencies, foreclosures, bankruptcies ­ - as well as how many accounts were paid late, the amount(s) that were paid late, and how recent those delinquencies are.

Amounts owed

Almost as important as how you’ve paid your bills is the amount of debt you hold.  That’s because the more debt you hold, the higher risk there is that you will become overburdened with debt and unable to meet your obligations.

There can be a trade-off between payment history and amounts owed, at least for people who have other non-mortgage debt.  “If a person makes the decision to stop paying his mortgage, and instead puts that money to paying off other debts, then the credit hit that comes from the short sale or foreclosure will be partially offset by a credit boost from having less other debt.”  (Not that I’m advocating for strategic mortgage defaults.)

Length of credit history

The length of time that you’ve had credit and debt is a good indication of your credit risk because the longer your history of on-time debt repayment, the more certain a lender can be that you will continue to repay your debts on time.  If you’ve just begun to establish your credit history, on the other hand, the lender has less “past behavior” to judge you on.

New credit

Research has demonstrated to the credit companies that people who take out a lot of new credit at one time pose greater credit risks than those who have not taken out new credit lately.  The “new credit” factor incorporates, for example, the number of recently opened accounts you have in proportion to older accounts and the number of times you’ve recently applied for new credit.

Types of credit used

This factor considers the types of debt you have - installment debt (like a mortgage) and revolving debt (like credit cards).

Why does it matter?

Your credit score will affect not only whether you’re able to qualify for a mortgage, but also the rate you can get.  The following table is an example of how much less a person with a higher credit score might pay each month:

 

Source: MyFICO.com

On a 30-year fixed, $150,000 mortgage, a person with the highest credit score would pay $150 less every month - and $54,133 less over 30 years - than a person with a fair (620-639) credit score.

Clearly, having a higher credit score pays off. 
Resource: Bob Stahl - www.myphoenixmlsblog.com

Below is a chart that shows the percentage of sales that were bank owned/foreclosed, short sales, and regular sales. This will be an important trend to watch as we move forward with this market to see if there are any shifts in the type of homes being sold.

A bank owned/foreclosure home is one that the seller no longer owns – it has been taken over by the lender(s) who had a note on the home. Short sales are homes where the seller is negotiating with the bank to “forgive” a portion of the debt in order to avoid foreclosure.

August saw a decrease of 16% in the number of foreclosure sales, virtually no change in the number of closed short sale sales, and a 12% decrease in the number of “normal” sales. We will continue to watch this trend to see how monthly sales are changing from month to month.

 

As you make decisions related to the purchase or sale of a home, it is important that you understand how the current real estate trends will impact your decisions. I am available to help you monitor and interpret them to make sure that you are taking advantage of the current market whether you are selling OR buying.

You must see to appreciate all features of this home

*This newly completed 2009 luxury home consists of a guest suite and main house that share a private travertine courtyard with custom fireplace

*The main house features 5 bedrooms,4 baths and office with built in closet

*Picturesque Camelback Mountain can be viewed from the oversized master bedroom    sitting area and private balcony

*Separate formal living and dining with hardwood floors

*Butlers pantry and wine closet

*Custom designed kitchen includes upgraded appliances large breakfast nook and granite islands

*Family room includes one of four large fireplaces with wooded beamed ceilings and opens up to a private backyard with patio and ramada

*The flexible floor plan lends itself to many options

*Golf *Restaurants*Shopping*Entertainers Delight*

The chart below shows sales per month in the Phoenix Area, by month, from 2005 through  August of 2009. 
The data is for single family homes.

What I find interesting about this chart are the numbers for this year.  They are well above anything we
have seen over the past 5 years - including 2005 which gave us one of the biggest run ups in Real Estate
in recent history - both in volume and in price.    

2007 was dismal, with some small improvement in 2008, and huge gains in 2009.   




Now let's take a look at the same date ranges, still single family homes in Phoenix, but put in Median
Price instead of number of sales.

You can see 2009 prices are way below even the dramtic losses seen in 2008.

So, while we see the market rebounding in terms of the number of properties being sold, the median
price of homes in the Phoenix area is still over $100,000 lower than it was a couple of years ago.





If you would like this information to be provided to you for your specific city or area, please give us a call
and we can get that for you.

The data provided here was supplied by The Cromford Report - www.cromfordreport.com

Here is some information and pictures of a great house on Thistle Landing Drive in the Ahwatukee Foothills.

It is an amazing opportunity for a great home in a fantastic neighborhood. This bright home features 5 bedrooms (5th could be a bonus/media room), large great room and private backyard with pebbletec pool. Top rated Kyrene elementary and middle schools right across the street. Although this home is not recently updated - it is immaculate. This home features real hardwood floors, newer A/C units, and has been recently painted.

Here is the link to the MLS:

1326 E. Thistle Landing Drive

Please give Trisha a call at 480-296-5656 or email her at Trisha@TrishaBonnell.com if you have any questions.



  

I cannot believe that it is September 1st already!  The summer flew by.  I grew up in Quebec, and the fall and back to school meant sweaters and long pants - not 113 degrees!  I am certainly ready for the heat to be over.

As it is the first of the month, I have decided to start a monthly post that gives updates on what is happening in the Real Estate Market in Ahwatukee.  How many homes are for sale, how many sold, average price etc.

If you would like more specific information for your particular neighborhood - anywhere in the valley, please give us a call and we would be happy to help you.

Janet

	Current Month August 2009	Last Month  July 2009	Last Year August 2008
# Listings	797	823	973
# Sold	90	127	85
Median Price	$214,950	$208,500	$259,900
Days on Market	115	114	116
Monthly Supply of Inventory	5.7	5.1	8.8
Ave Price per Square Foot	$119.85	$119.44	$147.61

Properties Sold by Zip Code in August:
85048 - 60%
85044 - 30%
85045 - 10%

Tempe Junior Crew has an amazing year in 2008/2009.  The team traveled to Boston, Oklahoma,
Newport, San Diego, Sacramento, British Columbia, Ohio, Connecticut, Philadelphia and Tennessee.

There were lots of medals won, and the 4 graduating seniors are headed off to row in college at
prestigious schools with great rowing programs.

The varsity women headed to Connecticut in June to train for the summer and the men to San Diego. 
Below is a summary from coach Daniel Duxbury of the teams achievements leading up to Club
Nationals in Oak Ridge Tennessee.


We have all arrived in Oak Ridge, TN and have rested up and began rigging and practicing.

The men have been working hard in San Diego for the last month. Under the guidance of my dear
friend Coach Guillermo Lemos, Lane Kelly, Stephen Wainwright and Zack Dale have been preparing
for their races, which include the Men's B 1X and 2X, the Men's Intermediate Lightweight 1X and the
Men's Senior 1X. The men's B racing will certainly show what is to come for TJC on the men's side
of things next year and Stephen Wainwright will get to show the big dogs everything he has learned
as he races up a division in the Intermediate Lightweight and Senior 1Xs.

The women have been with me in New London, CT training alongside of the Junior Women's
National Team. The recent results at the Independence Day Regatta have us very excited about
the Club Nationals. As you may or may not know, the TJC women swept the junior women's sculling
events except for one. TJC took the gold in the WJ1X, WJB1X, WJ4X, WJB4X, WJB2X and took 2nd
and 3rd in the WJ2X just a fraction of a second behind the first place crew from Crescent Boat Club.

TJC rower Rebecca Staff is also here racing with the Canadian Junior National Team's Can Am
Mex squad. She will be racing in the WI2X, WJ4X and the WI1X under the banner of the Maple Leaf "eh".

Real-time results can be found at www.racetrak.com and our first events begin tomorrow morning.
Please join me in wishing all of our summer racers "GOOD LUCK" at this year's USRA Club National
Championships!

-Coach Dan

Here's what happened in Tennessee at Club Nationals:

National Champions (Gold Medals): 
Women's Junior B Double, Women's Junior B Quad, Women's Junior A Double, Women's Junior A Quad 

Silver Medal's:
Women's Intermediate Single
Men's Junior B Single

Bronze Medal's:
Women's Junior A Single
Men's Senior LIghtweight Single

Quite a haul!!  Congratulations TJC.  It's going to be a great year.

Tax Credit due to expire November 30, 2009!

With low interest rates, a large inventory of homes, and decreasing home prices, there’s never been a better opportunity for first-time homebuyers, who are financially able, to purchase a home. In fact, the National Associates of REALTORS® predicted 53.5% of homebuyers in 2009 will be first-timers; due in most part to the $8,000 tax credit. But who qualifies as a “first-time homebuyer” and what are the exact provisions surrounding the tax credit? Keep reading for a short FAQ and find out why you need to act now if you plan on taking advantage of this great government incentive! 1. Who exactly qualifies as a first-time homebuyer? The law defines "first-time home buyer" as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase. For married taxpayers, the law tests the homeownership history of both the home buyer and his/her spouse. 2. How is the amount of the tax credit determined? The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000. 3. Are there any income limits for claiming the tax credit? Yes. The income limit for single taxpayers is $75,000; the limit is $150,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return. 4. How is this home buyer tax credit different from the tax credit that Congress enacted in July of 2008? The most significant difference is that this tax credit does not have to be repaid. Because it had to be repaid, the previous "credit" was essentially an interest-free loan. This tax incentive is a true tax credit. However, home buyers must use the residence as a principal residence for at least three years or face recapture of the tax credit amount. Certain exceptions apply. 5. How do I claim the tax credit? Do I need to complete a form or application? Participating in the tax credit program is easy. You claim the tax credit on your federal income tax return. Specifically, home buyers should complete IRS Form 5405 to determine their tax credit amount, and then claim this amount on line 67 of the 1040 income tax form for 2009 returns (line 69 of the 1040 income tax form for 2008 returns). 6. What types of homes will qualify for the tax credit? Any home that will be used as a principal residence will qualify for the credit. This includes single-family detached homes, attached homes like townhouses and condominiums, manufactured homes (also known as mobile homes) and houseboats. The definition of principal residence is identical to the one used to determine whether you may qualify for the $250,000 / $500,000 capital gain tax exclusion for principal residences. 7. I heard that some buyers are eligible to use the loan toward closing costs, is this true? Yes. Buyers applying for FHA-backed financing with an FHA-approved lender that offers a bridge-loan program can get a bridge loan to bring down the upfront costs of buying a home. Though, these same buyers will still have to come up with the minimum 3.5 percent down payment. Advantages like this are hard to beat. If you are seriously considering owning your first home – and you qualify – let’s talk. I’ll go over the basics and answer any questions you may have about the home buying process. I also have contacts within the mortgage industry and can put you in contact with a lender who will determine if you financially qualify. Source - The Wise Agent